Intuit's QuickBooks Online is its Software As A Service (SAAS) business. It is replacing Intuit's legacy QuickBooks Desktop software. QuickBooks Online is part of Intuit's effort to transform its revenue from highly repeatable transactional sales to highly recurring subscriptions. QuickBooks Online is experiencing strong adoption and growth. I wouldn't say it has built an enduring [...]

What I Wish I Wrote ~ June 30, 2017

Charlie Munger's talk on the Psychology of Human Misjudgement via Marketfolly Checking in with ESPN, the current state of its business and its future. (Sports Business Daily) You probably hear a lot that Tesla is disrupting this and that business. But is Tesla really disrupting any business in the true Clayton Christensen definition? (Vox) How [...]

One of our themes for investing in JP Morgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), and Morgan Stanley (MS) is increased returns of capital to shareholders. We believed that all three had more than enough capital to pass the Federal Reserve's stress tests and return a large portion of their excess capital back to shareholders. Yesterday all [...]

How Likely is 9% Growth for Starbucks?

A key component in the economic profit models I ran for Starbucks is the assumption that Starbucks will maintain a growth rate of 9% over the next 5-10 years. A common estimate I've seen in other research pieces. The question then is how likely is Starbucks, an already large company, to grow its sales at [...]

[edit]: My original economic profit model had an error. It was overestimating future invested capital. I kept the original images of each economic profit model but added updated values below them. This also changes my conclusion about Starbucks being overvalued or not. If you only looked at the P/E ratio Starbucks (SBUX) looks expensive with [...]

One of the reasons we invested in JP Morgan Chase (JPM) and Morgan Stanley (MS) is our belief that they are over capitalized. Their excess capital will eventually be returned to shareholders through buybacks and dividend increases as they continue to pass the Federal Reserve's Comprehensive Capital and Analysis and Review (CCAR). Goldman Sachs via [...]

Malcom Gladwell is back with his second season of Revisionist History. The first episode is A Good Walk Spoiled In the middle of Los Angeles — a city with some of the most expensive real estate in the world — there are a half a dozen exclusive golf courses, massive expanses dedicated to the pleasure [...]

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